石油开采商为美国石油危机做准备.S. 页岩热潮-华尔街日报

The end of the boom is in sight for America’s fracking companies.

Less than 3½ years after the shale revolution made the U.S. 世界上最大的石油生产国, 德州油田的公司, New Mexico and North Dakota have tapped many of their best wells.

If the largest shale drillers kept their output roughly flat, 就像他们在大流行期间所做的那样, many could continue drilling profitable wells for a decade or two, according to a Wall Street Journal review of inventory data and analyses. If they boosted production 30% a year—the pre-pandemic growth rate in the Permian Basin, 这个国家最大的油田-他们将在几年内耗尽主要的钻探地点.

Shale companies once drilled rapidly in pursuit of breakneck growth. Now the industry has little choice but to keep running in place. 许多企业都在抑制增产, 尽管油价处于多年来的最高水平，而且白宫要求他们钻探更多石油.

The limited inventory suggests that the era in which U.S. shale companies could quickly flood the world with 石油 is receding, and that market power is shifting back to other producers, 很多海外. 一些投资者和能源行业高管说，对库存的担忧可能是最近一系列收购的动机，并将导致更多的整合.

一些公司说，他们维持产量基本持平的决定并没有考虑到对库存的担忧. 在大流行前的几年, 沮丧的投资者曾向企业施压，要求它们放慢产量增长，并将现金返还给股东，而不是将其重新投入钻探. 企业已承诺限制支出, 不过，一些高管最近表示，高油价意味着他们今年需要再次扩张.

U.S. 石油产量目前约为11%.500万桶/天, is still well below its high in early 2020 of about 13 million barrels a day. 美国能源情报署(Energy Information Administration，简称eia)预计，美国石油产量将下降.S. 产量将增长5%左右.到2022年底增长4%.

大型页岩油公司已经不得不每年钻探数百口井，以保持产量持平. Shale wells produce prodigiously early on, but their production declines rapidly. 《威尼斯人平台注册送38元》在2019年报道称，数千口页岩井的石油和天然气产量低于公司的预测. Many have since marked down how many drilling locations they have left.

一些页岩油公司最终将不得不开始投资勘探新的热点, 高管和投资者表示, 即便如此, those efforts are likely to add only incremental inventory. 目前很少有人这样做.

先锋自然资源有限公司. , the largest 石油 producer in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, raised its 石油 production between 19% and 27% a year in shale’s peak years. Now, Pioneer is planning to increase output only 5% a year or lower, for the long term.

斯科特·谢菲尔德, 先锋集团首席执行官, 他说，投资者的压力和有限的油井库存意味着他不能像以前那样钻井了. “You just can’t keep growing 15% to 20% a year,” 他说. “你会钻出你的库存. 即使是好公司.”

Pioneer bought two smaller drillers last year, Parsley Energy Inc. and DoublePoint Energy, in deals valued at almost $11 billion combined. Mr. 谢菲尔德说，通过这些收购，他的公司还有大约15到20年的库存. 如果以15% - 20%的增长率计算，Pioneer的潜在钻井地点池只能维持8年左右, 他说.

过去一年，私营石油生产商增加了在二叠纪盆地的产量. 谢菲尔德警告说，如果他们继续这样做，即使是最大的公司也会迅速消耗掉他们的库存.

Mr. 谢菲尔德说，他预计美国将采取行动.S. 即使油价在每桶70美元至100美元之间，石油产量也将以每年2%至3%的速度增长. U.S. 油价收于每桶88美元.周三每桶26美元.

许多钻井公司表示，他们永远不会回到疫情前的产量增长水平，即每年30%, in part due to rising costs for raw materials and labor, a lack of available financing and the enormous number of new wells it would require.

Five of the largest shale companies— EOG Resources Inc.，德文能源公司. Diamondback能源公司.，大陆资源公司. 和马拉松石油公司. ——按照目前的钻井速度，它们都有大约10年或更长时间的盈利井场, 根据《威尼斯人平台注册送38元》的评论.

如果产量每年增长15%，它们将在六年内耗尽这些库存, 据分析公司FLOW Partners LLC称, which provided one of the analyses the Journal reviewed.

The Journal examined information about drilling inventories from analytics firm FLOW; Bernstein Research, part of asset-management company 所有ianceBernstein LP; and energy consulting firm Rystad Energy. 虽然这三家公司都做出了不同的假设，但它们都指出了类似的库存限制.

Some companies disputed they are running low on prime wells, arguing that FLOW had inaccurately labeled some of their better wells as uneconomic, 除其他原因外. 其他s said technological advances would allow them to extend the life of their acreage.

多年来，水力压裂公司告诉投资者，他们已经获得了足够的钻探点，可以继续开采几十年. In 2018, 大陆, which paved the way for a drilling bonanza in North Dakota’s Bakken field, 他说可能有65个,在那里钻了000口井, 生产370亿桶石油.

但是要钻那么多井, Rystad表示，公司必须进一步探索该地区，并改进现有技术, 该公司估计，该地区最终的石油产量可能只有280亿桶. 公司已经钻探了大约18个,500 wells in the Bakken and Three Forks formations in North Dakota and Montana, and though high prices may eventually spur exploration, 公司大约有16个,500 wells left to drill in their existing acreage using proven drilling methods, 小于3,其中200人被认为是顶级人才, Rystad说.

大陆 didn’t respond to requests for comment.

水力压裂公司的库存大幅减少，因为许多公司在疫情期间寻求收获最佳产量，以在油价下跌期间生存下来. 近年来, 他们还发现，他们对在狭小的空间里塞多少口井的预测过于乐观了.

公司了解到，新井与老井钻得太近，往往会干扰原有井的石油生产，或者导致新井的表现低于预期. 他们最终把井间隔得更远了, cutting into estimates of how many they had left to drill.

自2016年底以来，美国五大主要石油公司剩余的顶级钻井地点数量.S. 石油 regions has been cut from more than 68,000 to less than 35,000, Rystad estimates.

In the Bakken and the Eagle Ford shale of South Texas, 两个早期引发水力压裂热潮的油田, drillers had already significantly slowed their growth before the pandemic. 大流行前，Bakken地区的钻井平台数量与历史峰值相比下降了约77%，Eagle Ford地区下降了约70%. 即使放慢脚步, 生产商将在不到6年的时间里榨干Bakken的高产井，在不到5年的时间里榨干Eagle Ford的高产井, Rystad分析显示.

Rystad的数据只包括每个地区剩余库存中最赚钱的25%. 在鹰福特和巴肯的核心地区, the most prolific acreage has already been drilled up, 雷斯塔德和伯恩斯坦指出.

预计二叠纪盆地将成为美国寿命最长的油气盆地.S. 该国剩余的经济钻井地点中，有80%以上都在这里, 据伍德·麦肯齐说. The energy consulting firm projects production growth will plateau there by 2025.

勘探新地区的一家公司是EOG, the spinoff once known as Enron 石油 and 气体 and the fourth-largest U.S. 石油公司按市值计算. EOG developed some of the earliest shale techniques, pioneering fracking and horizontal drilling to unlock 石油 from tight rock formations.

目前，EOG是少数几家试图在美国境内寻找新的油气勘探地点的公司之一.S. 在新任首席执行长雅各布的领导下. 45岁的, who previously led the company’s exploration division, said EOG’s exploration isn’t motivated by concerns about running out of inventory, 而是通过寻找最有利可图的钻井地点，不断寻求增加回报.

“当你离开那些最佳位置时，供应成本就会开始上升，”他说. Yacob说.

EOG last year said it spent roughly $300 million on domestic exploration. It hasn’t disclosed the locations of its domestic exploration wells.

汤姆Loughrey, FLOW总裁, estimated EOG has about 12½ years left of inventory if it keeps output roughly flat, 但只有4个.如果每年增产15%，则需要4年. EOG不同意FLOW的评价, saying it estimates it has many more economic wells left to drill—about 11,500个所谓的优质钻井地点，如果按照去年的速度继续下去，将持续23年.

“EOG is highly confident in our inventory of future drilling locations,发言人Kimberly Ehmer说.

德文郡有9个.2 years left at its current pace, 根据FLOW. 但这将缩小到2.以每年15%的速度增长两年. That’s because once it has drilled its high-return acreage in Permian and Eagle Ford, 它将迅速收获产量较低的怀俄明州粉河盆地和斯塔克地区的资产, 在俄克拉荷马州, 根据FLOW.

丽莎•亚当斯, 德文郡的女发言人, 他说，公司放缓增长的战略是出于对纪律严明的支出计划的承诺，这将产生更高的回报, 而不是担心库存水平. At its current pace, the company has more than 10 years of inventory, s他说.

2012年，荷兰经历了3.6级地震. It was caused by one of the world’s largest gas fields, 格罗宁根, and it set off a chain of events that’s contributing to today’s sky-high energy prices. 《威尼斯人平台注册送38元》记者谢尔比•霍利迪解释道.

一些分析师认为，企业对甜蜜点缩小的担忧，推动了最近一系列数十亿美元的企业收购和土地出售. In early November, 大陆 said it would pay about $3.3 billion for land in the Permian Basin from Pioneer.

大陆航空高管当时说，这笔交易并非出于对库存的担忧. FLOW估计大陆航空大约有4家.5 years of Bakken inventory left at its current pace. After the Permian deal, the company would have about 11 years remaining. 即使收购了二叠纪盆地, the company’s inventory would be exhausted in about three years at 15%-per-year growth, 根据FLOW.

这一估计不包括大陆集团同意从切萨皮克能源公司(Chesapeake Energy Corp .)收购的资产. last month in the Powder River Basin, for about $450 million in cash.

小城镇的先生. Yacob believes his peers will eventually have to invest in risky exploratory drilling. Of the industry’s top-tier drilling locations, 他说, “They’re going pretty fast.”